Sports bets is often very profitable if an individual know the strategies this “smart money” bettors employ to consistently make cash. One of the greatest secrets that wise money bettors use is definitely knowing when NOT for you to bet.
Here’s a excellent example. I actually analyzed often the Western California vs. Louisville activity, and concluded that will West California had often the edge in the activity. Nevertheless , I also realized that there are a great deal of random and unforeseen factors, and recommended to my clients that they do not gamble on this specific game. Here is our analysis I released in advance of the game:
West Virginia or Louisville
This game possesses all the indicators of being one connected with the most effective games regarding the year, having equally teams coming into the game 7-0. It’s #3 rated West Virginia against. #5 ranked Louisville, equally having high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s sport was a classic, with Western Virginia coming backside from appearing down large in the next 1 / 4 to winning throughout overtime.
So what’s the game search like this year?
In the event this game were as played from a natural field, West Virginia would likely probably be a 4-6 place favorite. Since the particular game is in Louisville, WVU is a 1-point underdog. Let’s see if this will make sense…
West Virginia will be on an unprecedented rotate. They haven’t lost considering that July. 1, 2005, heading 14-0 since they misplaced to Las vegas Tech. On the last two months they’re 13-5 ATS too. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last nine game titles overall, and 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 STREET games.
These types of are some very extraordinary stats that tilt often the scales in favor connected with WVU intended for tonight’s online game. Plus, often the additional added bonus is that WVU can be GETTING +1 point. This may not seem like very much, but in a close up match-up such as this, that excess point could make the variation between some sort of push together with a loss.
But you may be wondering what regarding Louisville?
Louisville’s numbers are usually almost as good like WVU’s -except when it comes to Louisville in the point spread. In their particular previous 10 games, Louisville is just 4-6 ATS. The fact that said, Louisville is even now 7-3 ATS into their final 10 home game titles.
In addition to if you’re leaning in the direction of WVU, here’s a terrifying stat… Louisville hasn’t dropped at home since January 16, the year 2003! During สมัครufabet is averaging 49. 4 points for every game at home, while averaging only stopping 15. six points for each game in home. In case anyone decided not to do the mathematics, that means since their particular last home reduction they already have averaged beating his or her competitors simply by about 34 points per game.
In addition amazing, the average line in these games has only been 21 points. That stands for Louisville has beaten this get spread around, on average, by simply 13 factors per activity at home considering that the year 2003.
Wow… how can anyone not in favor of that?
Here’s exactly how…
Nearly all of those stats had been accumulated during the july 2004 season. This season, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to fine than great. They already have experienced recent games where they also have only scored twenty eight, twenty three, 24 points. These types of activities weren’t against Ohio Street. or Michigan. These people have been against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St.
The end result is that this is still a new close sport to contact. Yet the things i look regarding is West Virginia’s defense to carry the day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, plus Kansas St. can most hold Louisville under 30 points, then there’s simply no cause to think WVU can’t hold them to the particular low to the middle of 20’s. My honest endorsement is definitely to lay off this kind of game and definitely not guarantee at all. There usually are better activities this saturday and sunday with more clear-cut strengths.
The final score in this game was Louisville forty four, West California 34. Lousiville won because West California had 6 fumbles in addition to allowed Lousiville to return a punt for a new TD. The bottom line was that will West Virginia’s advantage had not been so big they will could still win immediately after making so many mistakes. By not betting on this specific match, people really serious concerning wagering saved money many people can put to better use on upcoming games.